Tennessee
vs. Bama rules the roost this week
By
Jeff Sallas
Well
it looks like the picks will be eas...
Oh no I am not going to make another idiotic statement like that this
week. I tell you it is kind of hard to
start picking again after a week where Auburn beats Florida, Arkansas beat
South Carolina, Ole Miss beats Bama and Troy St beats Miss St. I mean good grief that is a bunch of
upsets!!! I guess I need to preface my
picks the rest of the year with that statement. If all those upsets can happen anything can happen. I think it has been tough to pick the upsets
this year. Their really haven’t been
any indicators for most of them. Well I
had my first losing week in a long time last week. I died going 2-4 missing all the upsets above. I am now at 32-11 (74%) for the season. Well it is time to quit talking about last
week and take a look at this week...
One of
the SEC’s big rivalry games. As you
have to point out every year in this series, it is a series of streaks by each
team involved. UT’s current streak is 6
games. The longest winning streak
against Bama in their history. Coach
Dennis Franchione is starting to feel a little heat after last week’s meltdown
against Ole Miss. While I don’t think
the UCLA game was quite as close as Franchione has said I do agree that Bama
should have beaten South Carolina and Ole Miss.
Losing
those two games have really hurt Franchione in the short term. If Bama had won both or at least one of
those games things would be better. The
proof is across the state in Auburn.
Tommy Tuberville had 2 unbelievable meltdowns his first year at Auburn
losing just like Bama did in games just as close. However those 2 heartbreaking losses and whippings by Tennessee,
Florida and Arkansas were sandwiched between 2 big wins at LSU and
Georgia. Those 2 games gave Tuberville
some breathing room and got him through that first year. The South Carolina game could have been one
of those games for Franchione. It would
have given Franchione a big-time win to hang his hat on and give him some
breathing room.
Unfortunately
both of those games slipped through the Tide’s fingers and the natives are a
little restless. However a win this
week would erase all that. With UT
piling up wins this game has become as big or bigger than the Auburn game for
most Tide fans. Even with the close
losses, a lot of people are picking Bama to win this game and the last time I
heard UT was only favored by 2 points.
The game being at Tuscaloosa helps a lot. Bama should have a fired up crowd behind them.
When
you start looking at the matchup it is quickly apparent that the Bama offense
vs. the UT defense sticks out. Bama is
the best rushing team in the SEC while UT either is close or has the best
rushing defense in the nation. No team
has rushed for 100 yards against the Vols, not a player, no team has gained 100
yards total. Arkansas and LSU gained
less than 30 yards rushing against the UT defense. Georgia could only put up 68 yards and Syracuse, a good running
team just ask Auburn, only managed 75 yards on 42 carries. Meanwhile Bama’s offense is completely
dependent on running the ball.
Something has got to break here.
For
Bama to win this game I think they have to get AC Carter and Freddie Milons
involved a lot more than they have.
Carter finally started showing some frustration last week. He is the only player that had a career year
last year for Bama. He was one of the
only players that didn’t quit. He piled
up a bunch of 100 yard receiving games and was much better than Milons last
year yet he did not have ONE catch in the Texas El-Paso massacre. He only had 2 last week. I am not a football coach but I would get
these 2 playmakers much more involved.
I just don’t see how Bama can win without them.
Meanwhile
the UT offense against the Bama defense should be a good matchup as well. UT’s foundation will probably stay the same
as in pounding away with Travis Stephens.
Yet for them to win the game I think they will have to pass as
well. Bama’s weakness on defense has
obviously been against the pass. I
don’t think Bama has anyone who can really stay with Vol WR Kelley
Washington. However Washington and the
rest of the Vol WR corps are still fighting injuries.
I
think whoever has the best day passing will win this game. However I also think it is key for both
teams to get that early lead. I think
that will help either team run the ball better. I think it is more important for Bama as they have not played
from behind all year and Tyler Watts hasn’t been in that situation. Looking it over I think UT has the better
defense and the better passing game. Of
course if Auburn can beat Florida anything can happen but I just don’t think
Bama matches up very good with UT. Also
UT has had 2 weeks to prepare and I think Fulmer will have them ready to play.
TENNESSEE
OVER BAMA
Before
the season this looked to be the game of the season in the SEC West but it has
diminished a lot. Miss St is a team on
the brink. There are rumors of players
not getting along, coaches not getting along and losing games like last week
makes stuff like that ten times worse.
I think offensive coordinator Sparky Woods will most likely be made the
scapegoat for this season. The offense
has under performed greatly. Wayne
Madkin has taken a step back but even more important the OL has taken a step
back. Again last week State had no back
rush for 100 yards.
Meanwhile
every game for LSU is critical. They
have 2 SEC losses but as long as they keep winning they will stay in the
race. They get to play both Auburn and
Ole Miss so they still control their destiny as long as Auburn loses just one
conference game. However last week’s
defensive meltdown against Kentucky further underlined the fact that LSU is
still having problems stopping the pass at times. That shouldn’t be too much of a problem this week.
Before
this season LSU has been Jackie Sherill’s nemesis. He has a winning record or is close against every other team in
the West except LSU. I believe he has
only beaten LSU twice in his tenure and considering the problems State is
having it should be tough this year. On
the other side, coach Nick Saban might feel some heat this week if LSU loses.
LSU
has been pretty tough against the run so I don’t know if State will be able to
get untracked against them. Meanwhile
State will have to contend with LSU’s dynamic duo of Rohan Davey and Josh Reed. Reed has very quietly become the best
receiver in the West. He has another
160 yards on 8 catches last week. Also
LSU’s LaBrandon Toefield has another 100 yard day last week. I believe I saw that LSU is 5-0 when
Toefield rushes for 100 yards. I think
LSU has too many weapons even considering an inspired State effort. I still think State will ambush somebody but
I don’t think it will be this week...
LSU
OVER MISS ST
Georgia
returns home after a successful two game road trip in the state of
Tennessee. With Florida being upset the
Dawgs are back in the SEC East race.
They have a tough road but they do have a shot. After Kentucky they get Florida, Auburn and
Ole Miss in a row. The Georgia offense
continues to look good compared to the underachieving disaster they were under
Jim Donnan. Again considering Donnan’s
weaknesses, Mark Richt was the perfect hire for Georgia.
QB
David Greene had another 300 yard passing day against Vandy with no INTs. Freshman Fred Gibson stepped to the front of
the WR corps against Vandy with 106 yards receiving. The only bad thing for Georgia is a fairly serious injury to TB
Musa Smith. He has a hip flexor injury
and will miss this game and probably miss the Florida game. That really does hurt Georgia with these
crucial games coming up. It shouldn’t
hurt them too bad this week.
Kentucky’s
Guy Moriss continues to do a pretty good job picking up the mess Hal Mumme left
behind and his efforts were almost rewarded by a huge upset of LSU last week. However the defense couldn’t hold LSU and it
was another heartbreaking loss. Big
Jared Lorenzen led the comeback and has taken over the starting job I believe. The Wildcats are an improvement over last
year’s circus but it hasn’t translated to any wins. With that said I think this year’s game will be similar to last
year’s game between these two, a shoot out.
And I think Georgia has too much ammo...
GEORGIA
OVER KENTUCKY
A
couple of disgruntled teams line up in Columbia on Saturday night. Vandy comes in after another tough loss at
“home” and South Carolina comes in after really letting one get away. However that is the thing about the SEC,
while most of the teams aren’t always great they are good enough to pick you
off if you have a bad day. Football
seasons are long and have their ups and downs and in the SEC it is nearly
impossible to not get picked off. That
is what the Florida St has avoided for so long. This year looks to be different in the ACC although somebody will
have to win the title before things really change. But I digress, South Carolina got picked off but have a good game
to get back.
Vandy
at home is usually a good tonic for what ails you in the SEC. Vandy has played pretty tough so far but
hasn’t been able to get over the hump.
Greg Zolman had a great day last week against Georgia throwing for 316
yards with no INTs but while Vandy rolled up the yards they once again could
not get in the end zone. South Carolina
had a tough time as well scoring points last week but I look for them to
rebound strong.
SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER VANDERBILT
Boy
here we go, if anybody is primed for an upset it is Auburn and Ole Miss. Both teams are coming off huge
program-building conference wins and are facing uninspiring but very dangerous
out of conference opponents. La Tech
history as a giant-killer is well documented.
They have beaten Bama twice in the last 5 years and one of those was the
99 Bama team that beat Florida twice and they played Auburn very close last
year. It took a monster individual
performance from Rudi Johnson to hold off the Bulldogs last year for
Auburn. La Tech rolled up over 400
yards passing on Auburn.
In
fact I have heard that in an attempt to get his team’s attention Auburn coach
Tommy Tuberville is showing last year’s La Tech game to the team. I think that is a wise move. I think another key that might keep things
hopping on defense is playing a lot of people.
Starters get bored with these games but guys fighting for playing time
are much more intense. Auburn has a lot
of guys coming back from injuries but now they are having to fight for their
jobs. On offense this will be Dan
Cobb’s first start as an Auburn Tiger.
That is a pretty big deal and should keep the offense in it. Also, it really looks like the coaches are
working hard to avoid a letdown and an upset.
I think they will.
AUBURN
OVER LA TECH
Well
like the Auburn/La Tech game above this game could easily be an upset as
well. I have continually talked about
MTSU as they beat Vandy much worse than any other SEC team has this
season. They also ran up over 350 yards
total offense in a loss to Miss St last year.
They are still MTSU but they have some big-time talent on the team. The one I am most familiar with is RB Dwone
Hicks who played at Lee here in Huntsville, AL. This guy was an awesome prospect that both Auburn and Bama
skipped over. The guy is a very good
RB. MTSU showed plenty of offense
against Vandy rolling up over 600 yards and 40 minutes time of possession. This is one of these “patsy” teams that you
simply cannot overlook or you will get beat.
Ole
Miss is riding high but like Auburn above they must put last week behind them
and focus on this week. While this
isn’t a conference game a loss can really effect the rest of the season. I had sort of been thinking about this as an
upset pick since MTSU played Miss St so good last year and blew out Vandy this
year. However MTSU did lose to North
Texas last week and Ole Miss is really playing well. It is hard to pick against Eli Manning at this point in time. The Ole Miss offense is playing very well
while their defense continues to just hang on.
I definitely think there will be plenty of points scored in this
one. However Ole Miss is in the hunt
for the SEC West and a big bowl for the first time in a long long time, I don’t
think they will let this one slip away...
OLE
MISS OVER MTSU