An
SEC title rematch and an SEC West showdown
By
Jeff Sallas
The
picks are pretty easy this week. There
doesn’t look to be any upsets brewing accept maybe if Ole Miss beats Bama. So while everybody has the same picks let’s
take a closer look at each game. I went
5-2 last week missing Georgia and Auburn putting me at 30-7 (81%) for the
season.
Everybody
knew Florida was awesome but wanted to see how they performed against another
good SEC team away from home... Well we
all got our answer last week as Florida utterly destroyed LSU. The offensive stats have been reported ad
nauseum but I think the thing everybody is missing is how good Florida’s
defense played. LSU’s offense ran up
big yards on a good Tennessee defensive unit in a losing effort. However they were stymied by the Gators at
home.
The
Gator defense has quietly become very good behind a monster of an offense. I am usually a big stat guy but I don’t think
I need to waste any time quoting Florida’s stats. Bottom line, they are currently the best offense in the country
in every major statistical category.
Right now it doesn’t appear anyone can stay with them. Auburn’s defense has been pretty good and
will probably be the best unit Florida has faced so far. However Auburn’s inexperienced starting
freshman corner is one big target for Steve Spurrier.
Spurrier
is better than anyone exploiting a weakness in a defense. Auburn’s inexperienced secondary will be a
weakness. Also Auburn’s defensive line
has not been able to establish much of a pass rush all year. I really can’t think of a way for Auburn to
slow down Florida.
Meanwhile
the Auburn offense will have problems as well.
QB Jason Campbell took a step backward last week against Miss St and has
been slow releasing the ball all year.
That could be a fatal flaw against a defense as fast as Florida. Also Auburn was completely unable to block
Syracuse’s great DE Dwight Freeney.
They face another great DE this week in Alex Brown, Florida’s all-time
sack leader. I think he will add some
more to his record this week.
Auburn
does have a chance that I haven’t heard anybody in the media mention. The forecast is for scattered thunderstorms
in the Auburn area on Saturday. If this
game was played in a driving rainstorm, that would slow down Florida’s offense
considerably. Otherwise it will be
learning experience for Auburn’s young team and another step toward a
championship for Florida.
FLORIDA
OVER AUBURN
I
guess there could be an argument for this game being the game of the week
however as much of a laugher as Auburn/Florida is this season is about the same
as this series has been overall. Bama
holds a 39-7-2 advantage in the series.
Ole Miss hasn’t beat the Tide since taking down Bill Curry in 1988. Ole Miss could not even beat either of the 2
bad Mike Dubose teams. In fact, Bama’s
3-8 team last year creamed Ole Miss.
Ole
Miss always seem to fall apart against Bama.
In 1997 (under Tommy Tuberville) they had a 14-0 lead and blew it. The next year (also under Tuberville) Deuce
McCallister had over 250 yards rushing and Ole Miss dominated the game but
several goal line disasters sent the game to OT where Bama won again. Ole Miss has blown it against Bama in just
about every conceivable way the last few years.
Ole
Miss does seem to match up pretty well with Bama this year. They have one of the stronger passing games
in the conference and Bama has one of the weakest secondaries. Peyton Manning helped turn around the
Tennessee series with Bama, young Eli Manning will see if he can do the
same. WR Chris Collins has become
Mannings favorite target. He had 119
yards receiving against Kentucky and 87 more last week. Manning also likes to go to his RBs.
The
Ole Miss backfield has become a 3-headed monster with the carries being split
mainly between Joe Gunn, Charles Stackhouse and Toward Sanford. Stackhouse got the most last week and Gunn
the week before. The Ole Miss offense
is good. I think they will score some
points on Bama. However the stats show
that Bama’s defense has been solid despite the meltdown against South
Carolina. It should be interesting to
see what Bama’s defensive strategy will be.
Things
are not so even on the other side of the ball.
While Bama’s offense might not be quite as good as it was against UTEP
it is improving. QB Tyler Watts is
getting the most attention and he is playing very well but the biggest reason
for Bama’s success on offense is an improving offensive line. Freshman blue-chip recruits Justin Smiley
and Wesley Britt have really stepped up along with the rest of the line. One caution flag that Bama fans need to heed
is that ALL of Bama’s offensive success have been while they are ahead in the
game.
Tyler
Watts has not yet shown the ability to bring Bama back from a deficit where he
has to pass. If Bama is to have the
season some are predicting then he will have to sooner or later. Luckily for Bama it will probably not be
this week. The Ole Miss defense will be
the weakest unit on the field Saturday based on the season so far. Bama’s offensive line will look to push
around the undersized Ole Miss defense line.
I think they will. I look for Bama
to have success on the ground as their rivals across the state did against Ole
Miss.
It
should be another big day for Bama offensively but Ole Miss should keep it
close. The Rebels should have a chance
behind Manning but it is a longshot...
BAMA
OVER OLE MISS
How in
the world has Arkansas been on CBS twice this year while most teams haven’t
been on their ONCE? CBS sure knows how
to pick them. I mean it isn’t like Lou
is going to open it up against one of the worst offensive teams in the
nation. South Carolina will get the
lead and run it out if they have their way.
Arkansas has improved a bit on offense but not much. They actual ran up about 400 yards of total
offense against Weber St but 322 of that was on the ground. Fred Talley ran for 135 yards on 17
carries. The interesting thing was
Cedric Cobbs did not rush one time and I don’t think he is hurt. The Arkansas passing game was still horrible
as they were barely able to gain 100 yards through the air.
Meanwhile
South Carolina is cruising toward an October 27 date with the Volunteers. They actually didn’t come out flat against
Kentucky last week as everyone including me expected. They were up 21-0 by the end of the 1st quarter and
didn’t allow Kentucky to score till the 4th quarter. Derek Watson finally had a break out day
while QB Phil Petty was his usual efficient self. South Carolina ran 43 running plays to just 19 passing plays. I look for more of the same this week.
SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER ARKANSAS
Vandy
will play their 3rd straight conference opponent in Nashville that
will have more fans at the game than they do.
Georgia is going for the their second straight win in as many weeks in
the state of Tennessee. This one should
be a lot easier. It should be
interesting to see how Vandy comes out.
They have had a week off since Widenhofer’s latest coaching debacle
against Auburn. It seemed the players
had already started losing confidence in the coaches before that so I wonder if
things really get ugly from here.
Widenhofer almost got Georgia a couple of years ago but helped blow that
one with a bad coaching decision as well.
Georgia might come out a bit flat but I would be surprised if this one
is close.
GEORGIA
OVER VANDY
LSU
finally gets a breather after opening against Tennessee and Florida. Kentucky gets a good team that is pissed off
and ready to run it up on somebody. Add
these 2 things together and you get...
An LSU romp. I guess the
interesting thing about this game is how LSU’s schedule is panning out. They are going to start out playing their
entire SEC East schedule first. After
this game LSU has to play the entire SEC West.
This game should at least get them on the right track.
LSU
OVER KENTUCKY
The
Bulldogs return home to lick their wounds and get ready for LSU next week. That will be a huge game next week. It will be an absolute must win for LSU
while State will be back at home and ready to win one. Troy St does feature one familiar face,
former Auburn RB Demontray Carter.
Carter was a former Parade All-American who transferred after Terry
Bowden left. Troy St isn’t a complete
pushover, they stayed on the field with Nebraska and Miami and didn’t get beat
too bad. I think the key for State is
too get the running game energized.
MISS
ST OVER TROY ST