Two
big divisional battles on tap
By
Jeff Sallas
Well this week really comes down to 3
games. The 2 big divisional games I
mention above and one huge inter-divisional game in Florida and LSU. The Florida/LSU game is a possible SEC title
preview while Miss St/Auburn and Georgia/Tennessee are always major games
affecting each division. The SEC West
is especially tight. ANY win against a
division foe is huge in a division where it could come down to the
tie-breakers. Meanwhile a loss this
weekend by Florida or UT could give the other team a big leg up in winning the
East. Well I went 6-0 last week putting
me at 25-5 (83%) for the season.
The Florida air show comes to Baton Rouge
this week. LSU will take on it’s second
SEC East titan in as many weeks.
However at least this one is at home.
LSU was undefeated in-conference at home last year taking down
Tennessee, Miss St, Bama and Kentucky.
Unfortunately they went 1-3 on the road last year. They only beat Ole Miss and lost to Auburn,
Florida and Arkansas. This is a tough
stretch for Florida as well as they go to Baton Rouge and then Auburn next
week. However this is probably the
biggest land mine in-conference for the Gators other than UT and South
Carolina. Florida is by far the best
team in the SEC at the moment but any team can stumble any week.
You would kind of expect the Gators to be a
little off as they played a nearly perfect game against State last week. It is hard to play that good 2 games in a
row. However I wouldn’t look for too
big of a drop off. The Gators look
hungry. Rex Grossman is on an
unbelievable tear. I believe he is even
ahead of Wuerffel’s Heisman season. He
has had over 300 yards passing in each Florida game this year. Jabbar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell are both
headed toward 1000 yard receiving seasons as well. It sure looks like the only thing that can bring Florida down
right now is injuries.
The one chink in Florida’s offensive armor is
the running game. Wuerffel had a much
better running game while he was there with Eric Rhett and a young Fred Taylor
who have both rushed for a 1000 yards in the NFL. It seems that you should have a nickel or dime package in all the
time against Florida and try to get them to run more. Easier said than done though as Florida’s speed at WR leaves them
open much of the time regardless of the defense. It really doesn’t look like LSU will be able to slow Florida down
as they have given up big passing yards over the first 4 games. The patsies they played had over 500 yards
passing combined against LSU and UT piled up over 300 yards with 256 of that
going to ONE guy! If you can’t stop
these other passing games, I really think you are going to have a tough time
stopping Florida.
This one looks like it will be a
shootout. I would look for at least 50
points combined. LSU’s only chance is
to score a lot of points and force some turnovers. That is how LSU won last year against UT and Miss St. Both games were shootouts that went to OT I
believe. LSU has a pretty good tandem
in Rohan Davey and Josh Reed. Also I
don’t think the Florida defense has been tested through the air yet and they
have not been away from home. I think
we will know a lot more about the Gator defense after this week. I think LSU will score some points on them
but I think Florida will score more...
FLORIDA OVER LSU
This is by far the toughest pick of the
week. Nobody is really sure which way
this one is going to go. Auburn
currently leads the West but only after close wins over Ole Miss and Vandy with
a blowout loss to Syracuse in between.
Miss St is currently almost out of the West race after losses to South
Carolina and Florida. Auburn has the
wins over easy opponents and Miss St has the losses to tough opponents. Neither team is playing well at all at the
moment. Both teams are stagnant on
offense and surprisingly bad on defense.
Both teams seem void of leadership.
I freely admit that this one is pretty much a
tossup. The last time I saw the line
Auburn was a very slight favorite.
However here is my take... First
I think you can throw out the Florida game last week. People keep saying you can’t throw it out because it was SO
bad. I say you can since it was the
same score as the Auburn/Florida game last year at halftime, 35-0, and Auburn
won the SEC West. Auburn was beat just
as bad in the first half last year. To
quote Rex Grossman last year... “our scout team usually does better than
that”. The only difference was Spurrier
decided to run it up on Miss St while he didn’t against Auburn. That is only because he has beaten the stew
out of Auburn 7 times in a row now.
Spurrier ran it up on tiny Terry Bowden 56-10 in 96 to pay him back for
Auburn’s consecutive wins in 93 and 94.
Let’s look at Miss St’s loss to South
Carolina. South Carolina beat State by
stacking the line and leaving their corners one-on-one. The gambit worked and they stymied State except
for their first and last drives of the night.
What is uncertain is whether that was an inspired effort by South
Carolina or is Miss St’s OL just not very good. Bama’s OL destroyed South Carolina although they play a much
different offense than Miss St. As
always I guess it was a little of both.
Miss St’s OL doesn’t seem to be quite the same this year. They just have not run the ball anywhere
near what they did last year with the same two RBs. QB Wayne Madkin was steady in the South Carolina game but just
could not hit the deep ball. Of course
his WRs didn’t help him out much of the time dropping catchable balls. Only Terrell Grindle has stepped up to any
extent at WR for the Bulldogs. Starting
RB Dicenzo Miller is still doubtful but I bet he will play. Regardless, Donate Walker is better than
both of the backs Auburn has faced the last 2 weeks.
On the other side of the line, Auburn’s
defense has been just bad the last 2 weeks.
The Tiger defense has been shredded by Syracuse and Vandy for over 400
yards rushing. After being one of the
top teams against the run a year ago, Auburn coaches and fans are wondering
what happened. I believe it is a
combination of youth and lack of leadership.
No one has stepped up to fill the void left by seniors Alex Lincoln and
Rob Pate. Auburn’s much ballyhooed
defensive line has simply gotten it’s butt kicked. Also run stopping safety Stanford Simmons has probably spent more
of his time covering for Auburn’s young corners. It ought to be interesting to see who snaps out of it on
Saturday.
Meanwhile the Auburn offense and State
defense are about where everyone expected.
Both units were hit hard by players leaving last year and were expected
to do about what they are doing.
However since the other units have disappointed, neither of these units
have been able to pick up the slack.
State’s defense has been decent other than Florida. They held Memphis under 200 total yards and
South Carolina under 300 yards. The
problem against South Carolina was getting mauled in crucial short yardage
situations. Miss St will have to do
much better in short yardage situations this week.
Meanwhile Auburn’s offense has piled up the
yardage but has not been very good in the red zone. QB Jason Campbell has been a bright spot for the Tigers. He continues to play very well for a
freshman but will have his hands full this week. He has also looked lost at times and State defensive coordinator
Joe Lee Dunn will do more than all of Auburn’s other opponents so far. Auburn does get starting RB Ronnie Brown
back this week and he will be a major factor in the game. As for Auburn’s passing game, I am not sure
how effective it will be. Auburn has
been unable to consistently get the ball to any of it’s WRs and top TE Robert
Johnson who caught a crucial TD against Vandy was hurt in practice this week.
Miss St has dominated this series of late
winning the last 4 meetings. Joe Lee
Dunn consistently outwitted Terry Bowden after his brother left and has also
dominated current offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone. South Carolina won being very physical and running straight
ahead. Auburn is a much more finesse
team which plays right into State’s hands.
I think Jason Campbell will have a tough day but an early lead would
help this young Auburn offense a whole lot.
Meanwhile you would think Miss St would get
it’s running game untracked against an Auburn defense that has been so bad
against the run the last 2 weeks. That
will be the key to the game. Can Auburn
suddenly turn it around and stop the run?
I think they will early but a bunch of 3 and outs will open doors for
State late. Auburn’s secret weapon is
kicker Damon Duval, he could be the difference in the game. However I think Auburn’s young team learns
another tough lesson at home.
MISS ST OVER AUBURN
The Vols roll into this game as a legitimate
contender for the SEC East. UT passed
the test against LSU with flying colors.
Florida is the favorite by far but the Vols look to be the only team good
enough to challenge at this point.
Meanwhile Georgia looks to have a good team but unless they can manage
an upset in this game they don’t appear to be a contender for the East. This is always a big big game though because
these teams do not like each other at all.
However most of that was because of ex-coach Jim Donnan. New coach Mark Richt will probably not fan
the flames as Donnan did.
These teams are surprisingly similar on
offense. Both feature young QBs, game
breaking WRs and a couple of top RBs.
The 2 QBs are David Greene and Casey Clausen. The edge probably goes to Georgia here. Greene really seems to be gelling in Richt’s offense. Clausen took a major step forward on
Saturday but it was on the shoulders of WR Kelley Washington. Stopping Washington should be the major goal
for Georgia as he has been a big playmaker in UT’s last 2 games especially last
week. I think Washington’s 256 yards
receiving has caught everybody’s eye.
Meanwhile Georgia WR Terrence Edwards put up 122 yards receiving last
week and a TD. These guys are two of
the top WRs in the conference outside of Florida.
Tennessee’s foundation though still rests on
the shoulders of senior RB Travis Stephens.
I believe he is leading the conference in rushing. Georgia’s Musa Smith is probably right
behind him. Both of these guys should
get plenty of carries on Saturday.
Overall on offense I think you have to give UT the edge. Stephens and Washington are playing at the
top of their game now but the UT OL is banged up pretty good. Georgia’s defense has a chance to disrupt
the Vols.
Georgia’s defense has been pretty good
against the run. They shutdown South
Carolina’s running game and kept Arkansas under 100 yards rushing as well last
week. However both of those games were
at home. Meanwhile UT’s defense
completely shutdown LSU’s running game.
LSU’s only success was through the air so I would think that Georgia
would come out with a pass-oriented game plan.
I think we will really see what Richt has got this week. The former Florida St offensive coordinator
has done a great job with the Georgia offense so far but how good will he do
against this Vol defense in front of 100,000 screaming UT fans. I think that will have a definite effect on
Georgia who is running a new offense and is away from home for the first time
this season.
I also read this week that head coach Mark
Richt had never been to Knoxville. As a
former assistant at Florida St he is more used to that intimidating atmosphere
at Duke or Wake Forest. Bottom line, UT
is the better team and at home.
TENNESSEE OVER GEORGIA
What the heck is going on at Kentucky? Last week they rushed for more yards than
they passed for against an SEC opponent.
That has got to be the first time that has happened since before Hal
Mumme. What has happened to the passing
game? That is all Mumme recruited for
and they still rolled up big passing stats even while they were getting killed
last year. The passing game in last
week’s game against Ole Miss was awful.
Kentucky used both Shane Boyd and Jared Lorenzen and they combined for a
grand total of 104 passing yards.
Meanwhile out of nowhere junior Artose Pinner gained 130 yards.
Well I guess I am going to have to take back
some things I have said about Kentucky.
After visiting Vandy last weekend I can tell you that Kentucky is not
the bottom of the SEC facilities-wise.
Vandy is the worse by far. I
have been to Lexington and it is much nicer.
Also Kentucky draws about double what Vandy does for football.
I would bet South Carolina comes out a little
flat this week after the huge win over Bama.
This one might stay close for awhile but I expect the Gamecocks to pull
away sooner or later.
SOUTH CAROLINA OVER KENTUCKY
One of the only times a patsy game might be
looked forward to. Bama lost all their
non-conference games last year and lost their only one this year to UCLA. Also, Bama lost to La Tech twice under coach
Mike Dubose and had to endure countless close games that shouldn’t have been
under Gene Stallings. A blowout here
would be a welcome change I would think.
If I was head coach Dennis Franchione I would run this team out of the
dang stadium. It is funny how under
Stallings some people though he was “Bear-like” for his tough throw-back
defense and conservative offense. It is
funny because Bear Bryant was not like that at all. He usually had a great offense as well as a great defense. Under Bear Bryant Bama routinely rolled up huge
offensive totals and massacred overmatched opponents by big numbers.
BAMA OVER UTEP
Why is Ole Miss traveling to Arkansas
St? I am not really understanding that
one. However it should not make a difference
in the outcome. The Eli Manning
stat-padding should continue while Ole Miss keeps one eye on a big game with
Bama next week...
OLE MISS OVER ARKANSAS ST
Arkansas was originally supposed to play North
Texas on September 15 but scheduled this game instead because of the
cancellations. I am sure we will see
North Texas back on the schedule in a couple of years. Well all I have to say about this game is
that if Arkansas fans want to see some offense, this might be their only
chance...
ARKANSAS OVER WEBER ST