The
fullest week of the season in SEC football
By
Jeff Sallas
It is indeed the fullest week of the season
as every team plays and plays in conference.
At least one team has an open date every week for the rest of the
season. Every team was in action in
weeks 1 and 3 but many played out of conference. Another interesting thing about this week is that every game
features an East/West matchup.
I enter this week of all conference games
though on one down note. It sure seems
that the SEC is no longer the best conference in the country on the field. I really don’t think it is even second or
third. Florida can still play with
anybody and maybe Tennessee. A few more
might also be able to compete but over the last 2 years the SEC has been
soundly beaten by other conferences.
This year alone Bama has lost to the Pac-10, Kentucky to Conference USA,
Vandy to the Sun Belt conference and last week Auburn was flattened by a middle
of the road Big East team.
At the top, the SEC’s best team in Florida
was beaten soundly by FSU and Miami last year.
Elsewhere last year Bama lost all it’s non-conference games, South
Carolina and Georgia were beaten by their ACC rivals, and LSU lost to UAB. Vandy and Kentucky have almost become
patsies for other conferences. The SEC
also had a losing record in it’s bowl games last year. Right now I think the SEC is behind the Big
12, Big 10 and maybe even the Pac 10 top to bottom. It is, of course, a debatable point but the SEC just seems to
keep losing a lot of non-conference games.
However I don’t think there is a more
competitive conference. I think we will
see that this week. Well I barely
stayed over .500 going 3-2 last week missing South Carolina and Syracuse. That put me at 19-5 (79%) for the season...
One of the top games this year and the
toughest pick this week. LSU is still a
big question mark. We have learned a
lot about Tennessee in games against Syracuse and Arkansas but we still know
little about LSU. They played Tulane
and Utah St and have been off the last 2 weeks. Tennessee too has been off for 2 weeks. I don’t think there is any doubt that we will see the effects of
this long layoff on both teams.
This is a big game for UT QB Casey
Clausen. I think this is the biggest
game of his career so far. He has
thrown for less than 300 yards in 2 games with 1 TD and 1 INT. I think he is going to have to do more on
Saturday. UT’s passing game will still
be hurt my a missing or recovering WR Dante Stallworth. UT is going to need another big game out of
Kelley Washington. I really think that
UT is going to have to pass the ball a lot better to win this game. However Travis Stephens will still be the
main man. I would think LSU’s focus
would be to stop Stephens and make UT throw the ball.
We will finally see how good this LSU defense
is that returns 10 starters from last year.
It has been much hyped but this is the first real game they have
played. Even though LSU hasn’t played a
good team yet you can see some weaknesses on defense in the first 2 games. LSU has given up over 500 yards passing
against Tulane and Utah St. On the
other side, the LSU defense held both teams under 100 yards rushing. This seems
to be more evidence that UT is going to have to pass more.
Meanwhile, the matchup between LSU’s offense
and UT’s defense should be just as good.
Though Rohan Davey is a senior this is his first really big road game
that LSU has a chance to win. He played
at Florida last year but LSU was never really in that game. Davey played magnificently against the Vols
last year in Baton Rouge leading LSU to the win in OT. Who could forget the picture of him limping
around leading his team to victory.
However he will be up against a better UT defense and 100,000+ screaming
Vol fans. The 2 weeks off should also
have Vol All-American DL John Henderson back ready to go.
I think LSU will have a tough time running on
the Vols. A Syracuse team that rolled
up almost 250 yards rushing on Auburn could only get 75 against the Vols. Arkansas only managed 19 yards on 26 carries
against UT. The Vol defense could be
one of the best in the SEC this year.
This tough run defense will force LSU to go to the air. Then it all comes down to Rohan Davey. I am a big fan of Davey and think he is a
lot better than most but it is very hard not to get shook up against a tough UT
defense and a 100,000 orange-clad fans.
This could come down to a close
field-position game. Phil Fulmer’s
favorite kind of game. He is one of the
best in these type of games. I think it
will come down to which QB can execute and not make mistakes. Do you bet on the sophomore at home or the
senior on the road? I think UT will
force Davey into making some mistakes. I
think UT has a little bit better defense and a better running game plus they
are at home. I will take...
TENNESSEE OVER LSU
Miss St travels to Gainesville to try and
sweep the Gators in their 2 game series.
Only 3 teams have been able to do it to Spurrier. Bama won twice in the same year in 99,
Florida St has beaten them back to back 2 or 3 times I believe and Auburn did
it once in 93 and 94. Miss St crushed
the Gators last year in Starkville 47-35 rolling up over 350 yards
rushing. I usually don’t think there is
too much to “revenge” games but this time might be different. I think you will see a different level of
effort and concentration from the Gators after last year’s debacle.
Miss St comes in on a down note after a tough
loss to South Carolina at home and with starting RB Dicenzo Miller hurt. Dontae Walker should be able to step in for
Miller but the Bulldogs would definitely be stronger with a healthy Miller. Miss St came out with a different game plan
last week against South Carolina. They
came out throwing. State ended up
throwing the ball 46 times and only running it 34 times. Now a good bit of those passes came on
desperation 4th quarter drives but it did seem the Bulldogs were
throwing more than usual. The Bulldog’s
dynamic duo of Miller and Walker only got 81 yards on the ground. South Carolina consistently stacked the line
and dared State to throw over them and for the most part State couldn’t connect
on the deep pass. State will probably
see more of the same from Florida this week.
The State offense will have to follow the
standard blue-print for beating Florida.
You have to be able to make multiple TD drives and hope your defense can
force some turnovers for some more easy points. State will probably stick to a game plan of trying to get Walker
going and controlling the ball with a short passing game occasionally going
deep. Terrell Grindle is starting to
become State’s big play WR. They will
need him to make some big plays on Saturday.
Meanwhile the State defense should see the
complete opposite of South Carolina.
The Gamecocks ran the ball 46 times and threw it only 16 times. You can probably reverse that and be close
with Florida. Spurrier will go for the
throat early as always. State’s hope
will be to get a big push from their front 4 so they can drop more guys back in
coverage. Otherwise they will have to
try to guard Florida’s dynamic duo of Jabbar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell
one-on-one.
I just don’t think State’s defense is quite
as good this year while I think Florida’s has improved. The Bulldogs must force some Florida
turnovers to have a chance. It could
happen but I just think Florida is too good this year...
FLORIDA OVER MISS ST
South Carolina takes on the SEC West for the
second week in a row. However this time
they have them at home and Williams-Brice stadium should be rocking this week
after 2 big road wins. South Carolina
consistently averaged around 80,000 a game when they were bad so the place
should be packed out this weekend.
Gamecock fans are ecstatic as the team has started putting together a
special year. If they can get by the
Tide they will have a great shot at being 8-0 with only Tennessee and Florida
remaining in-conference. This is a big
big game for South Carolina.
Meanwhile Bama is on the road that most
thought they would travel. The offense
hasn’t been great but the new coaching staff has continued to limit the
mistakes and turnovers. The defense is
still not as good as most think they should be but they have gotten
better. The defensive line is slowly
starting to show some of that promise.
Can Bama put it together and get a huge win on the road? Doubtful but not impossible. South Carolina probably won’t be able to
score a ton of points so the Tide should be in the game till the end.
South Carolina will likely come in with the
same game plan as they had against Miss St.
They will stack the line with their hulking LB core and try and force
Bama to pass. I think Tyler Watts will
have to throw a few more passes this week.
Bama has some weapons in Galloway and Milons but the young line will
encounter problems with Carolina’s salty defense. Bama’s offense will have to be better than the last 3 weeks to
win this game.
Meanwhile the mental matchup of Skip Holtz
vs. Carl Torbush should be a good one.
Holtz consistently made the right calls against Joe Lee Dunn last week
so Bama and Torbush should have their hands full. Steady senior Phil Petty played another great game against State
that doesn’t show up in the stats. He
didn’t make any big mistakes or get sacked for the second game in a row plus he
hit some timely passes. Meanwhile the
Gamecocks have QB Corey Jenkins on the bench for a change of pace. They replaced Petty with Jenkins for awhile
in the second half of the State game and Jenkins broke the game open rushing
for 75 yards on 11 carries. Monster
fullback Andrew Pinnock led the Gamecocks in rushing against State.
Bama’s defense was able to force several
turnovers against Arkansas and will need to do it again this week. It will be tough because one of Holtz’s and
Carolina’s trademarks is not making many mistakes. Something has got to give.
I just don’t think it will be South Carolina. I am not picking against Lou 3 weeks in a row...
SOUTH CAROLINA OVER BAMA
Arkansas started coming out of their shell
offensively a bit against Bama but they are still pretty bad. I don’t think there is a lot of positive
feelings on that offense. Much-hyped
Cedric Cobbs has been benched. He only
had 1 carry against Bama. Brandon
Holmes and Fred Talley took over and got 17 carries each. I don’t think Cobbs is too happy and neither
is QB Zak Clark. He is the only
scholarship QB the Razorbacks have but has been benched as well for Ryan
Sorahan. He really doesn’t have a leg
to stand on though since he has never showed anything. Next the WRs have to be steamed as Arkansas
has no one that can get them the ball.
Finally, everyone has to upset with the OL that just can’t get anything
done. Watching the Razorbacks you can
see the frustration on their faces.
Meanwhile Georgia is another one of the teams
that were open last week. The tough
loss at home to South Carolina has narrowed Georgia’s goals to pretty much
trying to get a good bowl game. I guess
it is obvious they are not a contender for the East anymore. I think Mark Richt’s season will come down
to 2 games, Auburn and Georgia Tech.
Right now I don’t think Georgia can take down either Florida or
Tennessee and they should be favored this week and against Kentucky and
Vandy. That leaves their last 3 games
with Auburn, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech.
I guess the Ole Miss one is pretty important too but if Richt can beat
Auburn and Tech, I think Georgia fans will be very happy.
However there is a lot of football to be
played between now and then. Against
Arkansas I think you will probably see a game similar to the Bama/Arkansas game
last week. The Arkansas defense should
keep it fairly close till the offense made some mistakes. I think Georgia should have a pretty
comfortable lead by the 4th quarter.
GEORGIA OVER ARKANSAS
The Tigers come into Vandy licking their
wounds after a thorough embarrassment at Syracuse last week. Auburn has been outscored 45-14 in it’s last
5 quarters of football. Ole Miss
through the air and Syracuse on land.
Of course the offense turning the ball over 5 times last week really
hurt the defense. Auburn should be in
the perfect place to regroup and get a road win. Vandy did play Bama tough but Bama rolled up big yards and missed
a lot of opportunities. Otherwise Vandy
has been blown out by Middle Tenn St and barely got by the mighty Spiders from
Richmond.
Vandy QB Greg Zolman is an experienced
veteran and should get some sort of award for perseverance at the end of the
season. I mean starting at Vandy for
almost 4 years and making it all the way through is a real accomplishment. Zolman is a decent QB but doesn’t have much
around him. WR Dan Stricker is about
the only consistent performer at WR. RB
Lew Thomas has done pretty good and has been close 100 yards rushing each
game. The Auburn defense should pose
some problems for Vandy if they can get it together. The Auburn defense should have a speed and size advantage over
the Vandy offense.
The Vandy offense has been decent this season
but still has a tendency to turn the ball over. However the real letdown at Vandy this year has been the
defense. Every team this year has
rolled up over 300 yards offense on them.
The Auburn offense should be able to do the same. However they have to hold on to the
ball. Sophomore RB Cas Moore might get
the start at TB or most of the playing time this week with current start Ronnie
Brown injured. Moore has really looked
good the last 2 weeks so Auburn shouldn’t see a huge drop-off but the Tigers
will need Brown in the upcoming weeks.
Also, RBs Carnell Williams and Nebraska-transfer Chris Butler looked
good in mop-up duty last week and should get some additional playing time this
week. Auburn coaches are confident that
these guys can get the job done.
Auburn freshman QB Jason Campbell made a lot
of mistakes last week but still looked very good in spots. His problem and Auburn’s is finding away to
get everybody involved. Auburn’s best
WR Deandre Greene didn’t make a catch last week and had few thrown his
way. Speedster WR Tim Carter doesn’t
seem to be getting enough touches either.
Also, Auburn’s talented TE corps have been under utilized so far. Much of this is due to the fact that Auburn
continues to run the ball twice as much as they throw it. The coaches are obviously trying to bring
Campbell along slowly but it may be time to start balancing things up a
little. Otherwise Auburn is letting a
lot of talent just sit on the shelf.
Auburn crushed Vandy a year ago at home
33-0. I look for it to be a little
closer this year as Auburn is not quite as good on either side of the
ball. Also, Vandy should get up for
this one as they did against Bama but it should be...
AUBURN OVER VANDY
Hmmm... I am trying to think of an intro to
this game but am not coming up with anything.
I guess I will go to the weather card.
It is supposed to be sunny with highs in the 60s in Lexington so it
should be great weather to watch football in even if the matchup isn’t the
greatest. Commonwealth Stadium is a
nice place to go see a game. OK I guess
I need to talk about the teams...
Kentucky’s Guy Moriss continues to try and
rebuild some semblance of a legitimate team out of the rubble left by the
Hurricane Mumme. He has showed up
trying to run a normal offense and make sensible field position decisions
unlike Hal “go for it on 4th and 20” Mumme. The Wildcats showed a little pep against
Florida before the Gators turned it up a notch. I would think they would be fired up this week as well as this is
one of their few good chances at a win.
Ole Miss comes in feeling pretty good after a
valiant comeback against Auburn. If
coach David Cutcliffe would have come out throwing against Auburn he might have
had a better chance. Like Auburn he too
is trying to protect his young QB.
However also like Auburn it might be time to just let him air it
out. Once they did that against Auburn,
Eli Manning caught fire. It seems most
of the coaches in the SEC need to learn from Steve Spurrier. You come out throwing with urgency, score some
points and then start running the ball.
Now of course nobody has the talent Spurrier has but I think it is still
a good strategy if you have a good passing game and Ole Miss does.
Ole Miss should let Eli Manning loose to
start and then let Joe Gunn finish it off.
I think both teams will score some points and I kind of expect a little
bit of a shootout. It should be a
fairly close game but I think the Ole Miss offense is the superior unit on the
field.
OLE MISS OVER KENTUCKY