It
is time to start things up again…
By
Jeff Sallas
I believe last year in this space I labeled
this week as “the good, the bad and the ugly”.
I think I will do it again because it once again fits. Everyone in the SEC plays out of conference
this week and some of the games are good, some are bad and some are just plain
ugly. It is exciting all around though
as new players and new coaches hit the field for the first time all over the
conference. The festivities kick off on
Thursday night with Arkansas and UNLV.
That is why I have to get these out early this week! Alright let’s get to the games…
THE GOOD GAMES...
The
best of the opening games this year.
There are so many storylines…
The much anticipated debut of Bama head coach Dennis Franchione, a
rematch of the game that started Bama’s nightmare season last year and of
course the shadow of the NCAA. I guess
that is the first issue for Bama.
Everyone is saying the right things and trying to ignore the NCAA mess
but it is hard with federal indictments being handed down this week for Lynn
Lang and Milton Kirk in Memphis.
However I don’t think the NCAA mess will be as big a factor for the
football team till the actual official letter arrives.
I
guess the next issue is Bama’s QB. I
have been vocal in my opinion since the end of last year that Tyler Watts would
be the starting QB this year and it looks like that is what is going to
happen. However during the spring all
you heard was misinformation about Jonathan Richey and Brodie Croyle. Croyle was never a serious contender in my
book, the kid might have as much potential as advertised but he played 1-A high
school ball and missed his senior year.
There is no way other than injuries that he will not be redshirted in my
opinion. As for Richey, if the kid had
anything they would have played him last year rather than throwing Zow to the
wolves.
Speaking
of Zow, he has a lot to overcome as he was the player hurt the worst by last
year’s coaching debacle. He was so
messed up by the end of the year that it was pretty sad. I just didn’t think he would start because
of that but maybe the new coaching staff can bring him back. He could still start the first game but I
would be surprised. There is also been
a lot of talk of rotating again but I think one guy will get the majority of
the time.
Back
to Watts, I also think there is a lot of misinformation on him. It seems many Bama fans are quick to jump to
the next hot recruit, i.e. Croyle, and forget the one that is already there. Watts was a legitimate blue-chip
recruit. A Parade-All-American at a 5A
school. He didn’t get all those honors
running the ball (in fact Zow was the full-time option QB in high school).
Obviously he has not blossomed at the college level like many hoped but he has
shown some ability. In 1999 he started
the Southern Miss and LSU games and led Bama to wins in both games. His passing
numbers were good in both games except he threw some critical INTs in the LSU
game. He also came into the Auburn game
in 1999 game and made 1 or 2 crucial passes that turned the game. I am not sure how much you can take from the
2000 season as messed up as the coaches were
However
regardless of which one starts, Bama will likely go to a more conservative
running/short pass offense. I look for
Franchione to play a smart game of field possession and working the clock. Bama’s strength should be their defense and
they will rely on that strength. I look
for Galloway and maybe Miree to get a lot of work. Obviously, Franchione and Co. will get Freddie Milons and Antonio
Carter involved. I also think that at
crucial times they might look for TE Terry Jones Jr. Bama’s weak point on offense is their line. The Bama OL vs. the UCLA DL will the biggest
matchup of the game.
On
defense, I think coordinator Carl Torbush will zero in on UCLA RB DeShaun
Foster. I guarantee mission number one
is to stuff that guy since he ran over Bama last year. I look for LBs Victor Ellis and Saleem
Rasheed to dog Foster all day. So what
happens when UCLA goes to the air? They
should sting Bama a few times. Bama’s
weak point is their secondary. It was
the worst in the SEC last year. However
a good rush from their DL should help alot.
I also don’t think UCLA is as strong through the air as they were last
year. They return QB Corey Paus but
they lost big-time playmaker WR Freddie Mitchell to the NFL. I believe he had most of the big TD catches
against Bama last year.
All of the intangibles look like they go Bama’s
way. First, UCLA is the one coming
cross-country. Second, there is no
doubt that Bama wants this game BAD.
The players want to erase the memory of last year and you should see
maximum effort. Last but not least,
Franchione would love to win a big game his first time out. It could definitely go either way but many
forget that UCLA didn’t do to well after the game last year either. I pick...
BAMA OVER UCLA
The Orangemen roll into Big Orange country. This is another good opener. UT probably plays the toughest non-conference schedule this year as they take on Syracuse, Notre Dame and Memphis. No pushovers in that bunch. I guess the biggest thing I am looking for is what will happen at RB for the Vols. It looks like Travis Stephens will get the start but I wonder if one of the young guys will get some PT as well. The talk of the town in Knoxville has been about multi-talented freshman Kelly Washington. He is an older guy who has played minor league baseball like Quincy Carter. Apparently he can play QB, WR or in the secondary. Vol fans will be wanting to see what he can do on Saturday. I kind of think UT will pass a bit more than usual for Fulmer since there is no proven horse at RB and they have so many good WRs. You throw this Washington kid in with Dante Stallworth and Eric Parker and the Vol offense should be very dangerous through the air if QB Casey Clausen is ready. Syracuse looked strong on defense against Georgia Tech last week so it should be a dogfight.
Unfortunately
for Syracuse they didn’t look too good on offense last week. UT’s defense led by all-everything DT John
Henderson will be much tougher than Georgia Tech’s defense. I see juniors and seniors all over that
defense and they always have good young talent coming in. I look for this game to be close early but
expect UT to break the game open before the 4th quarter...
TENNESSEE
OVER SYRACUSE
This would be the
biggest game in the nation if this was basketball. However this has been the
best continuous opening game series over the last few years. However like Bama the dark shadow of the
NCAA hovers over all of Kentucky’s games this year. Though Bama has gotten more press, Kentucky is in just as much
trouble with the NCAA. The Wildcats
look almost assured to get hammered for numerous recruiting infractions. What Hal Mumme did good for this program is
totally superseded by the shambles he left it in. Also, Kentucky had 2 players suspended this week. I think Kentucky is down anyway but add the
NCAA problems and things look bleak. If Guy Moriss can beat anybody other than
Ball St this year I will be impressed.
LOUISVILLE OVER KENTUCKY
It is easy to pass over this game as just another
lame opening game but UNLV has gotten a little better in football. Ex-USC coach John Robinson has done a pretty
good job. They beat Arkansas at home
last year in the Las Vegas Bowl, blew them out actually. I think Arkansas will be looking for a
little payback this time on their turf.
I look for Arkansas to run the ball the majority of the time since they
are loaded at RB and have a big question mark at QB. I think UNLV is a pretty good offensive team so the Razorback
defense will be put to the test early.
There is a lot I don’t know about both teams but I do know Houston Nutt
is hard to beat at home.
This annual defensive slugfest has not shown much
offense but has been a very hard fought game over the last few years. Miss St might change things this year on
offense. They feature a veteran senior
QB and the best running attack in the SEC.
I have no idea what Memphis brings back this year on offense but I doubt
it will great. The most intersting
question about Memphis is will Albert Means play? I think Miss St wins this one a little more comfortably than the
last few.
THE BAD GAMES...
The “big game” for state bragging rights. I guess this one isn’t too bad but I don’t
think it will be too good either. Tulane
hasn’t showed much defense over the last few years. I look for LSU to roll up some big offensive numbers. The defense should be about as successful. The players should be pumped for this game
as they get Utah St next week. You
wouldn’t think LSU would get upset in one of these games after the UAB debacle
last year. I say LSU wins big.
LSU OVER TULANE
This isn’t necessarily a bad game but Florida
usually plays these games pretty bad.
Just about every year now Florida plays two non-conference patsies to
start the season and the games are consistently blah. I don’t think Florida shows a lot in these games and just gets
through them. Rex Grossman will start
over Brock Berlin but as always both QBs should get some work. Marshall is a bit better than some of the
other teams Florida has opened with but I expect the same result, a ho-hum
Florida win.
FLORIDA OVER MARSHALL
THE UGLY…
(Basically, something-State vs. SEC school)
The only thing noteworthy in these games are new QBs
and a new coach. Two of the biggest QB
prospects in the country when they came out of the high school start at Auburn
and Ole Miss. Eli Manning finally takes
over as the starter at Ole Miss while Jason Campbell takes over at Auburn. They are the biggest reasons to pay
attention to these games. Meanwhile new
head coach Mark Richt starts at Georgia.
Other than that everybody gets an easy win and the “State” schools get
paid...
AUBURN BEATS BALL ST
GEORGIA BEATS ARKANSAS ST
OLE MISS BEATS MURRAY ST
SOUTH CAROLINA BEATS BOISE ST
VANDY BEATS MIDDLE TENN ST